Which risk stratification model is used to predict the risk of one-year mortality based on diagnosis?

• A. Elder Risk Assessment
• B. Charlton Comorbidity Measure
• C. Minnesota Tiering
• D. Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups

Answer: (B)

The essential concept is using a diagnosis-based score to estimate mortality risk. The Charlson Comorbidity Index does this by identifying a specific set of comorbid conditions from medical diagnoses and assigning each a weight that reflects its association with mortality. By summing these weighted conditions, you obtain a single score that correlates with the probability of dying within a year—the higher the score, the higher the predicted one-year mortality. This tool was designed precisely for prognosis based on diagnosed diseases and has been validated across many populations, making it a standard choice for risk adjustment and prognosis.

Other models focus on different aims: they may predict likelihood of hospitalization, resource use, or general health risk rather than specifically projecting one-year mortality from diagnoses. For example, some systems emphasize age and functional factors, while others categorize overall disease burden to guide utilization rather than mortality. Because the question targets one-year mortality risk derived from diagnostic information, the Charlson Comorbidity Index is the best fit.